## Monday, March 9, 2009

### Theories of Probability

In mathematics, there is a theory known as ‘Theory of Probability’. If you
have two options, out of which one is right, and one is wrong, the chances
that you will choose the right one is half i.e. one out of the two will be
correct. You have 50% chances of being correct, similarly if you toss a coin
the chances that your guess will be correct is 50% (1 out of 2) i.e. ½. If you
toss a coin the second time, the chances that you will be correct in the second
toss is again 50% i.e. ½. But the chances that you will be correct in both the
tosses are half x half (½ x ½), which is equal to ¼. i.e. 50% of 50% i.e. equal
to 25%. If you toss a coin the third time, chances that you will be correct all
three times is (½ x ½ x ½) that is 1/8 or 50% of 50% of 50% that is 12.5%.
A dice has got six sides. If you throw a dice and guess any number between 1
and 6, the chances that your guess will be correct are 1/6. If you throw the
dice the second time, the chances that your guess will be correct in both the
throws is (1/6 x 1/6) which is equal to 1/36. If you throw the dice the third
time, the chances that all your three guesses are correct is (1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6) is
equal to 1/216 that is less than ½ a percent.

Let us apply this theory of probability to the Quran, and assume that a person
has guessed all the information that is mentioned in the Quran, which was
unknown at that time. Let us discuss the probability of all the guesses being
correct.
At the time when the Quran was revealed, people thought the world was flat.
There are several other options for the shape of the earth. It could be
triangular; it could be quadrangular, pentagonal, hexagonal, heptagonal,
octagonal, spherical, etc. Let’s assume there are about 30 different options
for the shape of the earth. The Quran rightly says it is spherical, if it was a
guess the chances of the guess being correct is 1/30.
The light of the moon can be its own light or a reflected light. The Quran
rightly says it is a reflected light. If it was a guess, the chances that it will be
correct is ½ and the probability that both the guesses i.e. the earth is spherical
and the light of the moon is reflected light is 1/30 x ½ = 1/60.

Further, the Quran also mentions every living thing is made up of water. The
options are say about 10,000. Every living thing can be made up of either
wood, stone, copper, aluminum, steel, silver, gold, oxygen, nitrogen,
hydrogen, oil, water, cement, concrete etc. The Quran rightly says that every
living thing is made up of water. Therefore if it’s a guess, the chances that it
will be correct is 1/10,000 and the probability of all the three guesses i.e.earth is spherical, light of moon is reflected, every living thing is created
from water being correct is 1/30 x ½ x 1/10,000 = 1/600,000 which is equal